As the 2024 presidential race heats up, it’s important to recognize that while polls and data offer insights, they don’t always capture the full picture. This analysis reflects my perspective on the state of the race, informed by available data and trends. However, much can still change before Election Day, and any attempt to predict the outcome remains speculative. Vice President Kamala Harris, in particular, has considerable room to grow, especially among independent and moderate voters, who will play a crucial role in determining the election’s outcome.
A Tight Race in Battleground States
The 2024 election will likely come down to a handful of battleground states, where the margins are razor-thin. Despite Harris holding a 3-point lead in national polls, this lead is less significant due to the structure of the Electoral College. Democrats have historically won the popular vote but fallen short in key states that determine the presidency. Experts like Nate Silver have suggested that Harris may need to win the popular vote by at least 3 percentage points to ensure an Electoral College victory.
Currently, the post-convention “honeymoon” phase for Harris appears to be over, as polling in battleground states such as Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shows a dead heat. This means the race is effectively tied in these pivotal states, and any shift in momentum could tip the balance.
The Importance of Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is emerging as a key swing state. Its demographic similarities to Michigan and Wisconsin suggest that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will likely take the entire election. Historically, the state has been a reliable indicator of the overall outcome, and in 2024, it appears to be no different.
Challenges Facing Harris
Harris’ earlier momentum in states like Arizona and Georgia seems to have leveled off. In Georgia, for example, Trump lost by less than 1% in 2020, a margin significantly influenced by the presence of Raphael Warnock on the ballot, which boosted Democratic turnout. Without a similarly high-profile candidate in 2024, the state now leans slightly toward Trump.
In Arizona and Nevada, Harris is also underperforming compared to Biden in 2020, particularly among Latino voters. While she still holds a lead with this demographic, it’s smaller than Biden’s, and in states where Biden barely won, this could prove decisive.
Undervaluing Trump’s Support?
Polls in 2016 and 2020 consistently underestimated Trump’s support, particularly in key swing states. In 2020, for example, Biden was leading comfortably in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin according to most polls, but Trump nearly won these states on Election Day. If the polls are similarly off in 2024, we could see Trump perform better than expected once again.
Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
Republican voters currently have a significant edge in enthusiasm, leading by about 10 points in recent polls. This is crucial because higher enthusiasm tends to correlate with higher voter turnout. Issues like the economy and public safety are driving this motivation, but the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade could also be a wildcard, potentially mobilizing voters on both sides.
Trump’s Appeal to Younger Voters
In a surprising development, Trump has made gains among voters aged 18-35, particularly through media strategies that include appearances on popular podcasts. Harris, meanwhile, has done fewer independent interviews, which could be a missed opportunity to engage younger voters.
The RFK Jr. Factor
While the endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may only shift a small number of votes, this could have a significant impact in states where Trump lost by less than 1% in 2020, such as Wisconsin. A small number of RFK Jr. voters shifting to Trump could tip the balance in his favor.
Issues Important to Swing Voters
I will not go into an in-depth analysis about each issue that swing voters tend to care about. Considering the complex issues and the degree of analysis necessary to analyze each issue, that would warrant an entirely distinct article. However, it’s important to note the key issues impacting swing state voters tend to be inflation, immigration and border security, climate change (particularly among young voters 18-35), healthcare costs, public safety and crime, abortion and reproductive rights, and education and school policies – with the number one issue being inflation.
Impact of Inflation on the 2024 Presidential Election
Though it can easily be argued that Biden’s policies has slowed inflation recently, it’s undeniable that overall prices have gone significantly up since Biden’s election. Since Vice President Harris has been an integral part of the Biden administration, unfortunately the issues with inflation are tied to the administration in which she has served.
Again, based on the limited scope of this article I will not go into much detail regarding an analysis of what has driven inflation, but you can find my analysis in a recent article I wrote. The main point here is that Vice President Harris needs to focus heavily on addressing concerns about inflation impacting poor and working class Americans.
It’s also true that abortion and reproductive rights are absolutely important and will impact turnout – but the question is will this turnout among women be enough to offset concerns about the economy, particularly inflation. It’s important to note that although abortion and reproductive rights have undoubtedly fired up VP’s Harris base, polling consistently demonstrates that inflation is the top concern. Trump is currently leading among voters who believe inflation is the most important issue.
Conclusion: Voter Turnout Will Be Key
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2024 election may hinge on voter turnout, particularly in the battleground states. If polling once again underestimates Trump’s support, as it did in both 2016 and 2020, he could very well win. But if Harris can mobilize her base, especially among young voters and independents, she has a path to victory. The bottom line for Harris supporters is this: ignore the polls and turn out in large numbers to counterbalance any potential polling inaccuracies.
