In a recent email sent to supporters, the 314 Action Fund — an organization focused on electing Democratic candidates with backgrounds in science, technology, and medicine — expressed growing concerns about Kamala Harris’s performance in Pennsylvania as she faces a tough battle against Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. The email emphasizes the critical role Pennsylvania plays in determining the outcome of the election and raises alarms over Trump’s potential advantage in the state.
The Importance of Pennsylvania
The email cites Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, which highlights that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has a 90% chance of securing the presidency. This makes Pennsylvania a crucial battleground state, and any shifts in polling or momentum there could tip the scales. Historically, Pennsylvania has been one of the most fiercely contested states in recent elections, and its role in deciding the presidency has only grown more significant.
Trump’s Undercounted Strength
314 Action Fund draws attention to concerns about potential polling inaccuracies, similar to those observed in previous elections. In both 2016 and 2020, Trump’s support was consistently undercounted in polls leading up to Election Day. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was predicted to win Pennsylvania by 3-6%, yet Trump won by a margin of 1%. In 2020, Joe Biden’s expected lead of 3-5% in the state also narrowed significantly, with Biden ultimately winning by only 1%.
With polls currently indicating a tied race between Harris and Trump, the 314 Action Fund is concerned that Trump’s actual strength may once again be undercounted. Given this history, they argue that Trump may already be leading in Pennsylvania, which raises the stakes even higher for the Harris campaign.
Trump’s Rally and Spending Surge
Adding to these concerns, Trump has been outspending Harris in Pennsylvania and recently held a massive rally in the state, signaling his commitment to securing a win there. The 314 Action Fund warns that Harris’s campaign risks falling behind without immediate action and additional resources to counter Trump’s momentum.
A Call to Action
The email from the 314 Action Fund serves not only as a warning but also as a call to action for supporters. With early voting underway and the Federal Election Commission (FEC) deadline fast approaching, the organization is urging donors to contribute to their efforts in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Michigan. They emphasize that increased funding is crucial for reaching millions of voters and securing victories for pro-science Democrats across the country.
By highlighting the significance of Pennsylvania and the potential for Trump’s strength to be undercounted once again, the 314 Action Fund underscores the importance of immediate action to prevent a repeat of past election outcomes.
