The Warning Signs Are Flashing Red
With the implementation of tariffs globally and the escalation of trade wars, the odds of a recession in 2025 are rising fast. What began as a slow economic cooling — driven by high interest rates, stubborn inflation, and reduced consumer confidence — is now being accelerated by policy decisions that directly affect international commerce.
Tariffs may sound like a Washington issue, but their impact is immediate and local — especially in port cities like New Orleans.
While national pundits debate whether a “soft landing” is still possible, New Orleans faces a more urgent question: What happens when a city built on tourism, imports, and gig work gets hit from all sides — again?
From shrinking port activity and rising prices to the struggles of hospitality workers and artists, New Orleans is uniquely vulnerable to the kind of economic downturn these trade and monetary policies can unleash. For many in the city, the effects aren’t just coming — they’re already here.
New Orleans Is Uniquely Vulnerable
Unlike tech hubs or financial centers, New Orleans depends heavily on in-person experiences: live music, bars and restaurants, conventions, and festivals. These are exactly the kinds of businesses and jobs that tend to disappear first during a recession.
During economic downturns:
• Tourists stop coming.
• Events and conventions get canceled.
• Tip-based workers lose hours and income.
“We live off visitors,” said one French Quarter bartender. “When people stop traveling, we stop eating.”
With so many residents working in the hospitality, entertainment, and gig sectors, the local economy begins to feel the strain early — and deeply.
(For more, see: The Real Cost of JazzFest for Locals)
The Hidden Threat: Tariffs and Trade Wars
While consumers worry about grocery prices and interest rates, a much quieter but equally dangerous threat is playing out: escalating tariffs.
The Biden administration has retained many Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports. And Trump has already proposed a sweeping 10% blanket tariff on all imports if re-elected. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, these policies have already cost the U.S. economy billions.
This matters deeply for New Orleans. As home to one of the largest trade hubs in the nation — the Port of New Orleans — our economy depends on the steady movement of imports and exports.
When global trade slows due to tariffs, local jobs vanish.
The ripple effects:
• Imported goods slow or stop — hurting dock, warehouse, and logistics workers
• Inflation increases — especially for construction materials, groceries, and fuel
• Louisiana exports like rice, soybeans, and petrochemicals lose international buyers
• Port-based industries (including maritime services) contract
Tariffs may be billed as protectionist policies, but in practice, they are economic accelerants to recession — especially for port cities like ours.
The Housing Market Could Shift — But Not for Everyone
While a national recession may cool overheated housing markets, New Orleans’ renters and low-income families could still suffer.
Here’s what could happen:
• Renters in working-class neighborhoods may face evictions due to job loss
• Airbnb owners may start panic-selling, adding housing stock — or fueling investor fire sales
• Locals may still be shut out by high interest rates and tightened lending requirements
Despite a possible dip in prices, New Orleans still faces a widening affordable housing crisis, and a recession will only intensify it.
Small Businesses and Culture-Bearers Are on the Brink
New Orleans thrives on independent businesses: food trucks, artists, musicians, bookstores, and local craftspeople. These aren’t just economic actors — they are cultural pillars.
But they’re also vulnerable:
• Few have large cash reserves or access to emergency credit
• Gig workers lose income first
• Arts funding and local grants tend to dry up
Without support, many may close permanently — and with them goes part of the soul of the city.
Who Gets Hurt First (And Worst)?
As always, the pain won’t be evenly distributed. In New Orleans:
• Black and brown communities will be hardest hit due to generational wealth disparities
• Women in hospitality, especially single mothers, will face job instability
• Young workers and grads will find fewer job openings
• Gig and tip workers will struggle to access unemployment protections
This city has been through it before — Katrina, the Great Recession, COVID-19 — and every time, the working class absorbs the blow.
Will Washington Step In — Or Step Back?
During the pandemic, federal aid (stimulus checks, unemployment boosts, rent protections) helped soften the crash. But in 2025, with political gridlock and renewed austerity debates in Congress, that kind of safety net may not return.
And in Louisiana, with Governor Jeff Landry focused on fighting culture wars instead of supporting working families, don’t expect local solutions to come quickly.
The Time to Prepare Is Now
New Orleans knows how to survive — but this time, survival isn’t enough. A looming recession, turbocharged by tariffs and global trade disruption, demands early action:
• Local government must prepare rental support, emergency aid, and food security programs.
• Residents can support neighborhood businesses, cut costs, and demand accountability.
• Policymakers must advocate for fair trade policy and federal stimulus plans that help cities like ours.
Because when the crash comes, it doesn’t hit hedge funds — it hits waiters, buskers, creatives, and caretakers.
And that’s who we fight for.
