New Orleans is bracing for a potentially dangerous combination of heavy rainfall, rising river levels, and overburdened infrastructure as a Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday evening. With saturated ground, near-capacity drainage systems, and the Mississippi River teetering near flood stage, the city faces a tense weather week. Despite earlier indications, the Bonnet Carré Spillway will not be opened, as current river forecasts do not necessitate its activation.
A Deluge in the Forecast
According to the National Weather Service, New Orleans is expected to receive between 4 to 6 inches of rain from Tuesday evening through Thursday, with some isolated areas potentially getting up to 10 inches. The heaviest downpours are forecast to hit overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday, with multiple rounds of storms increasing the risk of flash flooding across the metro area.
The city’s Sewerage and Water Board has confirmed that 88 of 93 major drainage pumps are operational. Still, officials are urging residents to take precautions, especially in low-lying neighborhoods. The system, already burdened by decades of underinvestment, will be tested if rainfall rates exceed the pump stations’ maximum capacities.
River Rising: A Dangerous Threshold Approaches
Compounding the risk is the Mississippi River, which crested at 16.9 feet at the Carrollton Gauge on May 2. That level is just shy of the 17-foot mark that typically signals heightened flood risk and can trigger operational decisions by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
The Corps typically considers opening the Bonnet Carré Spillway when river flow reaches 1.25 million cubic feet per second (cfs)—a volume often linked to a 17-foot gauge reading. However, Corps spokesperson Matt Roe previously indicated that this year’s flood cycle may require opening the Spillway at slightly lower elevations, as actual flow rates are higher than usual at lower gauge heights.
Spillway Opening Deemed Unnecessary
Despite a test opening conducted on April 21 and earlier warnings that a Bonnet Carré Spillway opening was “very likely,” the Corps has since updated its guidance. In a public statement issued last week, officials said the Mississippi River is cresting earlier and lower than expected, and current modeling does not indicate the need for an opening.
This clarification came April 29, after days of public concern and speculation. The Corps, which typically gives 48 hours’ notice before opening the Spillway, acknowledged that the current river flow remains well below the operational trigger.
Opening the Bonnet Carré Spillway would allow excess Mississippi River water to flow into Lake Pontchartrain, easing strain on New Orleans’ flood defenses—but at the cost of disrupting ecosystems, shellfish harvests, and possibly flooding lakefront areas if volumes surge.
On the Levee: A Sobering View
Photos taken this week from the levee Uptown along the Mississippi River show the water pressed high against its banks, creeping into grass and low brush, while nearby drainage canals move swiftly and near capacity. The visual evidence is undeniable: New Orleans’ defenses are being tested, even if water hasn’t overtopped the levees.
What’s at Stake
New Orleans is a city permanently negotiating its relationship with water. When days of rain converge with a swollen Mississippi and a strained drainage system, the risk of disaster grows. While the Bonnet Carré Spillway will remain closed—for now—conditions remain precarious. Emergency officials emphasize that the situation is fluid and evolving.
City officials are urging residents to:
• Monitor local forecasts and alerts
• Avoid driving through flooded roads
• Clear leaves and debris from street drains
• Prepare emergency kits in case of power outages
This is not a drill. This is a week to pay attention.
