Plenty of people are already treating Helena Moreno as the next mayor of New Orleans, but that assumption rests on a snapshot, not the full film. The most recent Faucheux Strategies poll taken in mid-July put her at 47 percent, with Oliver Thomas at 16 percent, Royce Duplessis at 14 percent, Arthur Hunter at 5, others at 3, and 15 percent undecided. A separate WVUE survey showed similar results, with Moreno ahead but still short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff. Polling this high is impressive, but it is not decisive, and the history of New Orleans elections shows that frontrunners often stumble once the race narrows to two candidates.
It is worth pausing on those numbers. Oliver Thomas, a well-known and well-respected figure in his district, currently sits in second place. Yet the conversation is increasingly turning to Royce Duplessis. Why? Because Duplessis only just entered the race, is only barely behind Thomas, and is still climbing. His late entry means his name recognition is lower, but his momentum is undeniable. With key endorsements, grassroots organizing, and time still to grow, he could easily surpass Thomas and secure the second runoff spot. That said, it is entirely possible Thomas holds on. The very fact that both scenarios are viable shows how much more fluid this race is than the current “Moreno inevitability” narrative admits.
Duplessis began the campaign later than Moreno and has less name recognition, yet his presence is already reshaping the race. When he announced, he wrote, “Six months ago, I made the very difficult decision not to run for mayor. But after continuing to listen to the people of this city… it became painfully clear that I have to run”. On his campaign site, he frames the moment even more starkly: “We are at a critical point in history, and I believe that it’s time to stop talking and immediately do what’s necessary for people to thrive.” He has since picked up endorsements, including one from former candidate Arthur Hunter, and the Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee, giving him institutional weight that reinforces the sense of momentum. His campaign also circulated an internal poll showing a neck-and-neck race with Moreno if he makes it into the runoff, a data point that has not been widely reported in the media but underscores how his team sees the path ahead.
Moreno, for her part, remains a formidable figure. She describes her vision as creating “a safer, more affordable, more functional New Orleans”, and frequently cites her record on climate policy and contracting reforms as proof of her ability to lead. “I am ready to lead this city in a new direction, because we need change now”, she declared at her campaign launch. She is banking on her experience and visibility to carry her over the finish line in October.
The challenge for Moreno is that winning outright in the primary is far from guaranteed. If she fails to cross the 50 percent threshold, the runoff becomes the real test. In New Orleans, the second round often reshapes the outcome entirely. LaToya Cantrell’s 2017 campaign is one example. She went into the runoff with just 39 percent of the vote but defeated Desiree Charbonnet by a wide margin after supporters of other candidates consolidated behind her. The Orleans Parish District Attorney race in 2020 is another. Keva Landrum led in the primary with 35 percent, while Jason Williams trailed at 29 percent. Williams built a reform coalition and surged in the runoff, ultimately winning with nearly 58 percent. Both races remind us that an early lead does not translate into inevitability.
Louisiana’s statewide elections underscore the point even more clearly. In the 2015 governor’s race, John Bel Edwards finished first in the primary with about 40 percent of the vote, far short of the majority needed to win outright. David Vitter trailed at 23 percent, with the rest of the Republican vote split between Scott Angelle and Jay Dardenne. Many assumed Vitter would rally Republicans in the runoff and overtake Edwards. Instead, Edwards consolidated Democrats, independents, and even Republicans disenchanted with Vitter, stunning the political establishment by defeating him by more than twelve points. That race proved that even a frontrunner under 50 percent must fight again in the runoff, where alliances and voter coalitions can dramatically shift the outcome.
There is also no escaping the role of race in New Orleans elections. Moreno draws her strongest support from Uptown and predominantly white liberal neighborhoods. Duplessis and Thomas, both Black legislators, resonate in majority-Black communities that historically determine the outcome once voters are faced with a runoff choice. With Moreno polling under 50 percent, the votes now divided among Thomas, Duplessis, and even Hunter, who is no longer in the race, could easily consolidate behind one candidate. That consolidation could be decisive, and right now Duplessis appears to be the one building momentum, especially after winning OPDEC’s endorsement alongside Hunter’s support. If those blocs coalesce, Moreno’s early advantage could prove illusory. Dr. Robert Collins of Dillard University has noted that this is the first open mayor’s race in decades without the machinery of a political dynasty, which makes coalition-building more important than ever.
The calendar is already compressing the field. The primary is set for October 11, and the campaigns are intensifying. Moreno has leaned on digital influencers to expand her reach, while Duplessis has worked to build momentum through community networks and grassroots endorsements. Tensions have flared: descendant of Moreno’s City Council seat, Delisha Boyd, said someone burned one of her campaign signs, underscoring how heated and fraught even down-ballot races have become in this contest. These flashpoints, combined with sharp exchanges and shifting allegiances, confirm that this race is morally, and mutely, far from settled.
What this all means is that Helena Moreno may lead today, but the race is not over. Royce Duplessis has a clear path to force a runoff, and Oliver Thomas could just as easily hold onto his current second-place spot. In either case, once the contest becomes a head-to-head choice, the dynamics change dramatically. In New Orleans, elections have never been won by coasting on early numbers. They are won by building the broadest coalition when the stakes are clearest. Moreno may look strong in August, but by November, it could be Duplessis, or Thomas, who rewrites the script.
