With Mayor LaToya Cantrell term limited and facing a federal indictment that has cast an unmistakable shadow over City Hall, the race to lead New Orleans has taken on outsized stakes and a clear sense of urgency. Early voting begins Sept. 27 for the Oct. 11 all party primary, and if no candidate tops 50%, the top two advance to a Nov. 15 runoff.
The state of the race
Fresh polling suggests voters are coalescing around a clear front runner, City Council Vice President Helena Moreno. A recent media snapshot places Moreno just above the 50% mark among likely voters, with Councilmember Oliver Thomas and State Sen. Royce Duplessis trailing in the mid teens, and Republican CPA Frank Janusa further back. Earlier summer polling also showed Moreno with a substantial lead, though short of an outright October win, a reminder that undecided voters and late movement could still shape the outcome.
Money often follows momentum, and Moreno opened a large fundraising lead earlier this year, building a seven figure war chest while many rivals lagged behind. Even so, campaigns rarely move in straight lines, and an August shake up saw former judge Arthur Hunter exit and endorse Duplessis, an attempt to consolidate anti front runner votes and reshape the runway into October.
Meanwhile, the mechanics of election administration have intruded into the narrative, with the parish reported to be significantly short of poll workers less than a month out. It is a reminder that basic logistics, training, and turnout operations can still influence close margins.
All of this unfolds as Cantrell’s legal drama continues to dominate the city’s political backdrop, she has pleaded not guilty to federal charges and remains in office during the final months of her term, reinforcing the turbulence that many candidates promise to leave behind.
How the ballot works, and why 50% matters
Louisiana’s open primary, often called a jungle primary, puts all candidates on one ballot regardless of party affiliation. A majority on Oct. 11 ends the race then and there, otherwise a Nov. 15 runoff decides it. That structure rewards early name recognition and a broad coalition, two advantages current polling suggests Moreno enjoys, while giving underdogs a second chance if the front runner falls short of the 50% threshold.
The issues behind the slogans, what the next mayor will actually have to fix
Every New Orleans mayoral campaign repeats a familiar refrain about streets, drainage, crime, and City Hall basics. The difference in 2025 is scale and timing. The city faces a large backlog of road repairs, a drainage network that depends on aging pumps and power, and a workforce pipeline that has not rebounded to pre pandemic levels. Whoever wins will inherit a city that expects visible progress, not just plans and PowerPoints. The next administration will need to pair capital projects with routine maintenance, because residents judge daily reliability more than ribbon cuttings. That means crews that actually show up, call centers that answer, and a procurement system that moves faster while staying honest.
Public safety remains the top concern in most voter conversations, and it is not limited to police staffing alone. Voters talk about 911 response times, about coordination among police, prosecutors, courts, and diversion programs, and about the balance between enforcement and prevention. Candidates who can explain a practical path to fill vacancies, to retain trained officers, and to invest in civilian roles that free sworn officers for patrol, often score points in neighborhood forums. Mental health services, youth programming, and reentry supports have moved from talking points to must haves, since many residents see them as part of a crime strategy rather than a separate social service agenda.
Housing affordability is the third rail that intersects with quality of life and public safety. Rents that climbed during the last few years pressure families across the city. Neighborhood groups now ask detailed questions about permitting for accessory dwelling units, about the pace of code enforcement for long term blighted properties, and about short term rentals as a factor in housing availability. Business owners add a workforce angle, since rising rents push employees farther from their jobs and put pressure on transit and parking.
Infrastructure and climate resilience sit close behind. Flood risk remains a daily fact of life during summer storms, and the public understands that drainage is a system that includes street grading, catch basins, canals, pumps, and the power to run them. The next mayor will need to coordinate across agencies with overlapping footprints and explain clearly who does what and when. Voters respond to simple service level commitments, clean this many catch basins per quarter, repave this many lane miles per year, inspect this many subsurface failures per month, because numbers can be measured and reported.
Economic development is another dividing line. Some candidates lean into tourism as a fast path to growth, while others press for a broader base that includes logistics, port activity, film production, health care, and tech. Neighborhood business owners often ask about basic block and tackle steps, like predictable inspections, transparent fee schedules, and digital permitting that actually works. The city has piloted various tools over the years, but the next mayor will be judged on whether a homeowner can pull a permit without taking a day off and whether a small builder can close out a job without multiple trips downtown.
Good government, ethics, and transparency have grown in importance because of recent scandals and headlines. Residents who rarely read an audit report now ask whether the next mayor will publish monthly dashboards for service delivery and spending. There is a steady push to open the budget process earlier, to engage neighborhood groups before the final weeks, and to tie funding to shared metrics so that the public can see where the money goes. Candidates who can show how they will restructure the Mayor’s Office to track projects, to resolve inter agency disputes, and to report progress tend to earn credibility beyond their base.
How the candidates are trying to stand out, contrasts in style and substance
The front runner narrative rests on a competence message, steady the ship and deliver basics with measurable benchmarks. That message appeals to homeowners who want fewer surprises and to business owners who want predictable timelines. The main challengers counter with a blend of reform and neighborhood focus, promising to listen, to decentralize some decision making, and to rebuild trust block by block. Voters who feel unheard by City Hall often respond to that pitch. The outsider candidates try to cut through by naming problems in blunt terms, by offering a common sense voice, and by promising to hold the bureaucracy accountable.
In forums, crime plans sound similar on the surface, but there are differences in emphasis. One camp focuses on staffing and deployment, another invests more in prevention and co responder models, and a third emphasizes intergovernmental work with state and federal partners. On infrastructure, the dividing line is whether a candidate will reorganize city departments to concentrate delivery, or whether they will add project management capacity without a major shake up. On permitting and customer service, some would consolidate operations under one accountable executive, others would focus on process mapping and technology upgrades first.
Campaign style matters too. Some candidates stick to disciplined talking points and a tight schedule of neighborhood visits, others embrace open mics and long Q and A sessions. In a city that values personality, a warm room can move votes, but organization wins elections. Field operations, door knocks, targeted mail, and early vote turnout are the levers that decide close races. Volunteers who can explain a candidate’s plan in plain language are still the most persuasive messengers a campaign can deploy.
Neighborhood snapshots, what different parts of the city are asking for
In New Orleans East and the Lower Nine, residents stress retail revival, blight remediation, drainage, and credible economic development that lasts beyond one grand opening. In Algiers, voters often elevate ferry reliability, police presence, and road conditions. In Gentilly and Lakeview, drainage, street repair, and property insurance dominate. In Mid City, Bywater, and Uptown, the conversation shifts toward housing affordability, short term rentals, bike and pedestrian safety, and permitting. Central City and Broadmoor groups blend concerns about public safety with calls for youth jobs and after school programs. Across the city, seniors bring up sidewalks, lighting, and transit reliability as essential quality of life issues. The next mayor will have to deliver for all of them, which means building a governing coalition that can survive tough tradeoffs.
Money, messaging, and the final month
Advertising ramps up as early voting approaches. Expect a mix of biography spots, contrast ads on competence and ethics, and targeted digital messages that speak to specific neighborhood issues. Earned media still matters, and candidates who handle tough interviews without sparring over every premise often gain points with undecided voters. Endorsements from neighborhood leaders, labor groups, and civic organizations can help, but what moves numbers is a clear connection between promises and execution, tell voters how you will measure success and how soon they will see results.
Fundraising reports give a partial picture of strength, but efficiency matters as much as cash on hand. A candidate with a strong volunteer network and a tight field plan can match a richer opponent in the final ten days. Ground game logistics decide whether early vote applications are chased, whether rides to polls are organized, and whether voters who pledged support receive a reminder on the right day. The winner in October or November will have paired a message about competence with the mechanics of turnout.
What undecided voters are weighing, and what could still change
Many undecided voters are not choosing between left and right, they are deciding whether City Hall will finally deliver on basics. They want proof of management skill, not just slogans. They ask how the next mayor will hire and retain talent in a tight labor market, how they will modernize procurement without inviting waste, and how they will keep projects on schedule in a city with complex underground conditions. They also ask about tone, since they want a mayor who can work with the council, with state leaders, and with federal partners without constant friction.
External events can still reshape the race. A disruptive storm could test emergency communications. A public safety incident could refocus attention on deployment and response times. A major infrastructure failure could elevate management credibility even more. A late endorsement or a memorable debate moment could give a challenger the momentum needed to force a runoff.
Day one, the first one hundred days, and the long haul
Voters often ask what comes first after inauguration. A credible plan will include a quick audit of service delivery, a hiring sprint for critical vacancies, and a clear set of public benchmarks for the first quarter. On streets and drainage, that means publishing a schedule that residents can track. On public safety, that means clarifying who answers for which targets, recruitment, training, and deployment, and reporting those numbers at regular intervals. On permitting and customer service, that means a timeline for process fixes and a single point of accountability for results.
The long haul requires a capital plan that matches ambition with capacity. The next mayor will need to be a translator, explaining complex funding and engineering choices in plain English. New Orleans voters are patient when they see honest progress. They lose patience when plans change without explanation. The city has talent inside and outside the government. The mayor who lines up that talent with a clear mission and simple scorecards will earn trust.
The qualified candidates, short bios and what they are pitching
(Listed alphabetically, party shown in parentheses. Only qualified candidates are included.)
- Joseph “Joe” Bikulege Jr. (Independent) – An independent newcomer with a low public profile, Bikulege qualified for the ballot and is campaigning as an outsider alternative to entrenched political figures. His message focuses on business practicality, basic services, and managerial competence.
- Russell J. Butler (No Party) – A community advocate whose platform emphasizes flood mitigation, drainage, and police staffing and management. Butler’s pitch centers on competent leadership, accountability, and a safety first approach to bringing back reliability in city services.
- “Manny Chevrolet” Bruno (No Party) – A comedian and perennial satirical candidate, Bruno has appeared on mayoral ballots for two decades. His brand is a wry critique of City Hall and a tongue in cheek promise to surface everyday frustrations, traffic, trash, and permitting, that residents know all too well.
- Eileen Carter (No Party) – A business strategist and former social media manager in the Cantrell administration who later co led the 2022 recall effort. Carter frames herself as a unifier focused on neighborhood level services, trust in government, and transparent communication with residents.
- Renada Collins (No Party) – A business coach and media entrepreneur, Collins leans into a small business friendly agenda, encouraging minority entrepreneurship, streamlined permitting, and neighborhood investment as the backbone of equitable growth.
- Royce Duplessis (Democrat) – A state senator for District 5 and former state representative, Duplessis highlights intergovernmental cooperation, public safety partnerships, and neighborhood scale economic development. After Hunter’s exit and endorsement, Duplessis is working to become the primary alternative for voters seeking a non Moreno option.
- Frank Robert Janusa (Republican) – A certified public accountant running on fiscal discipline and operational reform, Janusa’s message is back to basics, fix City Hall’s finances, impose rigorous contract oversight, and make measurable progress on streets and drainage.
- Helena Moreno (Democrat) – A citywide at-large councilmember and City Council vice president, Moreno is a former TV journalist and state legislator. Her campaign brands itself as a new direction built on accountability, better basic services, and violent crime reduction, and she currently leads public polling.
- Frank M. Scurlock (No Party) – An entrepreneur known for the inflatable bounce house business and a prior 2017 mayoral run, Scurlock blends big idea development pitches with boosterism and a tourism forward vision that aims to reenergize the city’s brand.
- Oliver Thomas (Democrat) – The District E councilmember and longtime civic figure emphasizes pragmatic service delivery, revitalization of New Orleans East and the Lower Nine, and neighborhood partnerships derived from decades of experience around municipal government.
- Ricky Twiggs (Independent) – A licensed professional counselor and nonprofit founder from Algiers who centers mental health, youth empowerment, and community healing as crime prevention tools. Twiggs pitches a human scale model of public safety built around prevention and services.
What the polls do, and do not, tell us
Polls are snapshots, not forecasts. A mid summer survey that had Moreno near 47% suggested a wide lead yet short of an October knockout, the early September wave showing her slightly above 50% implies she could clinch it in the primary. But New Orleans’ electorate is notoriously hard to model, turnout varies sharply by neighborhood and age, and undecided voters often break late. TV, radio, and digital buys in the final three weeks can still move numbers, especially on issues that cut across demographics, sanitation reliability, police staffing, drainage, and permitting.
If the anti-Moreno vote consolidates behind Duplessis or Thomas, particularly after Hunter’s exit, a runoff remains plausible. Conversely, if Moreno sustains a coalition that spans a third or more of Black voters and a supermajority of white voters, she could win outright in October. That is the scenario current polling envisions, yet small shifts in turnout, endorsements, or late hits can change the picture quickly.
Voter logistics
- Early voting, Sept. 27 through Oct. 4, except Sunday
- Primary election, Oct. 11
- Runoff, if needed, Nov. 15
- Absentee ballot deadlines, request by Oct. 7 at 4:30 p.m., return by Oct. 10 at 4:30 p.m. for most voters
Bottom line
The mayor’s race is not only a contest of personalities, it is a referendum on whether New Orleans can execute. If a front runner sustains a broad coalition, the race can end in October. If not, a five week runoff will test organization and message in equal measure. Either way, the next administration will be judged on the same daily test residents apply every morning, did the city do the basics today. If the next mayor answers yes, and can prove it with data that residents can see, the politics will take care of itself.
